In January, the heavy truck market "gives strength" most enterprises to achieve high growth

At the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, the heavy truck industry was mostly cautiously optimistic about the trend of the industry this year, and even some pessimistic arguments were mixed with it。

    The basis for caution and pessimists is that the heavy truck industry is closely related to the macro economy, and the speed of the economic troika is likely to decline in 2011。Some analysts pointed out that as far as the Chinese economy is concerned, the economic boom will fall slightly in 2011。Investment growth is still fast, but it has moderated。China's fixed asset investment is expected to grow by about 20% in 2011, slower than the previous year's growth rate。Expanding consumption continued to show results, and consumption continued to grow rapidly。It is estimated that China's total retail sales of consumer goods will grow by about 13% in real terms in 2011, down 2 percentage points from the previous year。The recovery of external demand market is slow, and export growth has dropped significantly。It is estimated that import and export will grow by about 16% and import by about 18% in 2011, and the trade surplus will be smaller than that of the previous year。Due to investment, consumption, and export troika driving or weak, some people in the industry speculated that the growth rate of the heavy truck industry slowed down or fell sharply。

    When predicting the trend of heavy trucks in 2011 at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, there are 10 specific reasons why the trend will be depressed:

    1.The country's economic slowdown will reduce heavy truck sales。Heavy truck sales are highly correlated with GDP, and measures taken by the country to control inflation will slow down economic development, which will have a direct impact on the heavy truck market。

    2.The shift in the country's monetary policy has led to a reduction in the size of credit。Lower credit lines will lead to less investment, less dealer acceptance lines, and less support for car loans。At a dealer meeting of an enterprise, a dealer publicly said that the bank acceptance bill has encountered difficulties。

    3.The priority of the state's economic policy this year is to ensure the people's livelihood, not to engage in construction, and a large amount of fiscal expenditure will be shifted from promoting investment to livelihood projects。In December 2010, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to "accelerate the formation of a new situation of coordinated economic growth driven by consumption, investment and exports", which is the first time that "consumption" ranks in the top。Before this, when the central government mentioned these three, it was "investment" ranked first, "export" second, "consumption" third。The change in the ranking of these three points also illustrates the direction of the country's economic policy this year。

    4.Fixed-asset investment decelerated。

    5.Heavy card update cycle。In recent years, the heavy truck purchase summit has brought about another update peak after two or three years, and after the update peak in 2010, it will usher in the trough period of the update in 2011。

    6.Increased rail freight capacity squeezes the road transport market。On January 11, 2011, the new train operation map was implemented from midnight, and the national rail freight capacity increased by 12.The improvement of freight capacity will effectively guarantee the transportation of key materials such as coal, oil, wood and steel, which are related to the national economy and people's livelihood。Among them, the coal in the "three West" area alone will increase by more than 100 million tons。The increase in freight capacity is bound to suppress the demand for heavy trucks。

    7.Freight rates fell and oil prices rose。At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, freight rates have begun to fall, only a little more than 30 cents per ton kilometer。Relative to rising oil prices, falling freight rates will make road transport profits greatly reduced。General freight rates fall, the future period of heavy truck demand will decline。

    8.Last year's surge faded。In 2010, the demand for heavy trucks in 2011 was overdrawn。Due to the cancellation of road maintenance fees，As a result, many users have increased their demand for vehicles in the two years before last year;Implementation of weight-based charges，It also leads to many transport units that do not make money from their original vehicles，They are replacing profitable models;Overloading is unsustainable，That used to be a whole load，We need more cars now，It also leads to increased demand for heavy trucks。The boost to demand from all these factors will fade this year。Therefore, compared with 2010, many of the positive factors that promoted the sales of heavy trucks in 2011 are difficult to sustain。    

    9.The efficiency of transportation has been continuously improved。The quantity of heavy trucks/the total amount of freight transportation in our country is much higher than the average value of the world, and is far apart from the developed country。With the improvement of the efficiency of China's logistics industry, it will inevitably reduce the demand for heavy trucks in the actual turnover of goods。

    10.Promotion of sling transport。Some people say that 2011 will be the first year of dumping。Sling transportation will be heavily promoted in 2011, and this mode of transportation will increase the demand for trailers and reduce the demand for tractors。

    Ten reasons, well founded, it represents the view of most market participants at the time。However, in January this year, the sales data of some heavy truck enterprises (which can represent the heavy truck industry to a certain extent) were "red", which made people surprised。

    China National TruK January production and sales express shows that the company in January to achieve heavy truck production 1.370,000 units, an increase of 10 percent year-on-year.70%;Achieved sales of 7,892 units, an increase of 73.83%。

    Faw Jiefang produced medium and heavy duty truck 2 in January.410,000 units, sales of 2.Among them, 9112 JEs were produced in June, exceeding the expected task by 116%。In January, the production and sales of Jiefang trucks exceeded 20,000 units。It is understood that FAW liberation in January originally planned to produce 1.800,000 heavy trucks。According to market demand, the company has experienced 31 consecutive versions of production plan adjustment, and actually completed 2.410,000, the market is hot。

    Dongfeng commercial Vehicle's new sales statistics show that in January, the company sold medium-heavy truck 3.250,000 vehicles, up 45% year-on-year;Among them, the sales department is 1.570,000 units, up 43 percent from a year earlier。Dongfeng Liuqi continued the strong momentum of production and sales in 2010, and the production and sales of heavy trucks in January refreshed the historical record, reaching 3,650 units。Cheng Daoran, general manager of Dongfeng Liu Automobile Company, said, "The production and sales situation in January can be said to have started a good start for the 'Twelfth Five-Year Plan', and also put a set of 'start gun' for the construction of a new 100,000 automobile production base in the auto city."。Dongfeng Liuqi commercial vehicle sales in 2011 will challenge 100,000 units, an increase of 81.8%。”

    Shaanxi Heavy truck released news that the company made a good start in the first month, and the order exceeded 1.30,000 vehicles, up 45 percent from a year earlier。Shaanxi Auto said the good start in the first month made it confident of its target of 150,000 units this year。

    Fukuda Auman, which ranked fifth in the industry by heavy truck sales last year, couldn't get its January sales figures because its board didn't release earnings information。

    In addition, SAIC Iveco Red Rock, which ranked seventh last year, produced 3,691 medium heavy trucks in January, an increase of 42 compared with 2,587 in the same period.67%;The company sold 3, 197 vehicles in January, up 53 from 2, 088 in the same month.11%。

    Jianghuai Trucks, which ranked ninth last year, produced 3,051 medium and heavy trucks in January this year, an increase of 105 compared with 1,487 in the same period.18%;The company sold 2,934 vehicles in January, up 79 from 1,631 in the same month.89%。

    Although the complete production and sales data of the heavy truck industry in 2011 have not yet been released, the basic situation has been settled。The domestic heavy truck market in January is very strong, and the "red purple" industry situation has made some industry insiders surprised